Many poker players believe that, thanks to the fact we have computer programs which can determine the best way to play every poker hand in order to increase the odds you will profit in the long run, following this Game Theory Optimal (GTO) way to play means that you can rest assured you made the correct decision no matter what the short-term outcome is. Of course, people rarely offer a guesstimate of how long the short run can be. Does anyone really know?

I watched a great video about poker variance recently and this question has been on my mind ever since. With graphs and figures to explain his calculations, he showed that even when you play optimally – at a decent win rate – your expected income can vary quite drastically. His examples were based approximately two years of full-time poker play. For a recreational player like me, it could represent five to ten years’ time, depending on how often one plays. For someone trying to build a bankroll from nothing, it shows how next-to-impossible that is to do. You have to be able to tolerate the swings and keep risking money for the graphs he shows to be meaningful. I haven’t been in a position to do that.

I will admit, I also have not studied GTO very much. Most of what I do know about GTO came from YouTube. I do calculate the pot odds and equity of hands that I analyze on paper and ponder each from a mathematical perspective while reviewing the tarot meanings of the cards. I believe it is important to know both… but, like some others, I prefer to keep study separate from play. On the felt, I trust my intuition to know what I should do in every situation.

My intuition has access to all the information I studied (and more). My intuition is smarter than my rational brain and making the decisions whether I believe it is or not. (I have heard scientific studies on this idea in several books and videos recently… here is one sample.) I recently came up with a new motto to summarize my opinion on the matter in regard to poker:

There is no right or wrong way. There is only play.

Rachel Hoyt

Personally, I think there are multiple reasons my bankroll hasn’t grown exponentially (yet). Perhaps the answer is variance. Maybe the problem is me. Most likely the truth lies somewhere in-between. I felt it was important to start sharing my stories now – before I’ve achieved success – so the truth about where I came from is out there before I get where I plan to go.

Someone asked me recently why I didn’t just play poker full-time and win a bunch of money. While the answer could be poker variance and the fact I don’t have a proper bankroll, I can’t help but think it’s also because I wasn’t yet sharing my thoughts publicly; admitting that I trust my intuition more than my rational brain. Also, I don’t actually aspire to be a full-time poker player. I am a writer and artist. The game and its players are my muse. However, more importantly, the day I achieve my dreams I want it to be known that my spiritual path led me to poker and remains the reason I play.

Knowing what many might say should I achieve big win(s) with unorthodox methods, I created a design to illustrate my response in advance: luck happens. See you on the felt.